Measuring Downtown Success Beyond Foot Traffic

Foot traffic is often the first metric people reach for when talking about downtown success. 

It is visible. It is intuitive. It is easy to explain to boards, funders, and elected officials. When sidewalks feel busy, it looks like progress. When they feel quiet, concern follows quickly.

And yet, many downtowns that feel busy still struggle. Others that look calm or even underwhelming on a given day are quietly stabilizing and improving year over year.

That tension is usually the signal that something is off, not with the downtown itself, but with how success is being measured.

If foot traffic were enough, more downtowns would be thriving by now.

Why Foot Traffic Became the Default Metric

Foot traffic became popular for understandable reasons.

It is easy to observe. It aligns well with events, promotions, and seasonal activity. In many communities, it is one of the only data points available without specialized tools or expensive studies.

It also feels neutral. Counting people seems objective, especially compared to messier indicators like business health, organizational capacity, or market readiness.

None of that makes foot traffic wrong. It makes it incomplete.

The Limits of Foot Traffic on Its Own

Foot traffic tells you that people are present. It does not tell you what happens next 

On its own, foot traffic does not measure:

  • whether businesses are profitable

  • whether leases are being renewed

  • whether staff and volunteers are stretched thin

  • whether activity is repeatable or just occasional

Foot traffic can spike during a festival and drop back to baseline the next week. It can rise because of a single anchor business while others continue to struggle. It can even increase while vacancy and churn remain unchanged.

Used without context, it creates pressure to chase visibility instead of improving function.

The issue is not that foot traffic is misleading. The issue is that it is partial.

A Better Starting Question

Instead of asking, “How many people are downtown?” A more useful question is, “Is downtown functioning better than it was before?” 

That shift changes what gets noticed.

Function shows up in durability, not just activity. In predictability, not just spikes. In reduced friction, not just excitement.

When downtown function improves, foot traffic often follows naturally. When foot traffic is forced without function underneath it, the results rarely last.

Four Indicators That Matter More Than Volume Alone

To understand whether a downtown is actually improving, it helps to look across a small set of indicators that reflect how the system is working, not just how it looks. 

1. Business Stability

One of the strongest signs of downtown progress is business stability.

This shows up as:

  • fewer closures

  • lease renewals

  • businesses expanding hours or offerings

  • owners investing back into their spaces

None of these are flashy. Most happen quietly. But they indicate that operating conditions are becoming more manageable.

A downtown where businesses are staying is usually doing more right than a downtown that is constantly recruiting replacements.

2. Organizational Capacity

Downtown success is limited by the people and systems responsible for carrying the work forward.

Signs of improving capacity include:

  • clearer priorities

  • projects reaching completion instead of lingering

  • fewer last-minute pivots

  • less reactive decision-making

When capacity improves, downtowns often feel calmer before they feel busier. That calm is not stagnation. It is alignment.

3. Property Momentum

Real estate is one of the slowest moving indicators, which is exactly why it matters.

Property momentum shows up as:

  • incremental building improvements

  • upper floors moving from discussion to planning

  • owners making longer-term decisions

  • vacancy becoming more predictable, even if it is not eliminated 

These shifts are subtle. They are also hard to fake.

When property owners begin acting with more confidence, it usually reflects a deeper belief that downtown is stabilizing.

4. Consistency Over Time

Sustainable downtowns are consistent.

That consistency looks like:

  • predictable business hours

  • fewer one-off experiments

  • repeat customer behavior

  • less need to reset priorities every year

Consistency is often mistaken for a lack of creativity. In reality, it is a sign that the basics are working well enough to rely on. 

Success feels boring before it feels exciting.

Using Foot Traffic the Right Way

Foot traffic still has value when it is used carefully.

It works best when it is:

  • compared over time, not in isolation

  • paired with data on sales, retention, or leasing

  • used to test specific interventions

  • framed as a question rather than a verdict

For example, instead of saying, “Foot traffic increased, so this worked,” a better approach is, “Foot traffic increased. What else changed, and what did not?”

That curiosity keeps decision-making grounded.

Metrics Should Match the Downtown’s Phase

Not every downtown should measure success the same way. 

A downtown focused on stabilization will look different from one focused on growth. Early-stage work often produces quieter gains than mature districts.

Broadly speaking, many downtowns move through phases:

  • stabilizing basic function

  • strengthening systems and relationships

  • expanding activity and investment

Expecting growth-phase metrics during stabilization creates unnecessary pressure. Measuring the right things at the right time allows progress to compound instead of stall.

What Happens When Metrics Are Misaligned

When success is measured narrowly, decisions follow. 

Misaligned metrics often lead to:

  • chasing visibility over stability

  • stacking initiatives instead of sequencing them

  • exhausting staff and volunteers

  • misdiagnosing what is actually holding downtown back

Over time, this erodes trust. Not because people stop caring, but because effort does not translate into durable improvement 

Better metrics do not slow progress. They protect it.

The Takeaway

Measuring downtown success is not about collecting more data. It is about asking better questions.

Progress often shows up quietly before it shows up publicly. Downtowns that improve their function tend to look unremarkable before they look impressive.

If the only thing being measured is how busy downtown looks, it is easy to miss how well it is actually working.

Continue the series:
Next: Placemaking vs Economic Development

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